I got an email yesterday from my real estate agent:
[Meg],I'm not "in the market" per se, but I have told him to keep me in mind when special deals arise. My original goal was to buy one property a year until I have 10 by 2017. But I'm on track and was planning to let my liquidity - and my career and income - stabilize before actively searching again.
How are you? I don't know if you are in the market right now, but a short sale opportunity on [the street where I own one rental] has just come up. Take a look at the link and let me know if you are interested. If not, just please let me know so I can take it to another client.
Hope you are well.
But I clicked the link and glanced at the listing. It is a duplex right down the street from mine; all of the homes on that street were built by the same builder and sold at the same price and have essentially the same floorplan. So I know the property well.
I bought mine for the builder's non-negotiable asking price of $219,900 last year. Total monthly fixed expenses are $1,790, and the monthly rental income is $2,220. I've never had to make a repair, and maintenance is almost non-existant as it is a relatively new construction. I've also never had a problem getting it rented (there's only been one vacancy since I bought it, which I filled in less than 2 weeks).
The vast majority of tenant drama that I share with you dear readers, for the record, is associated with my other duplex. I have had few issues with this one, and I've appreciated the steady positive cash flow.
So I would be vaguely interested in general if another one on the street came up for sale - but this deal is even better than that. The listed price is $172,000, a full $48,000 lower than what I paid for an identical unit less than one year ago. I checked the county appraisal website, and the tax assessed value of the place is actually over $234,000! This would need to be contested of course, especially if it sells for $172,000, but in any event it is obviously on sale at a discount.
So I responded in the affirmative that I am interested, and asked my agent to verify the list price and the fact that it is fully occupied. He agreed, and said he thought it best to get a contract started and complete due diligence later; it's not going to stay on the market long at this price. I called my mother, father, grandfather, and mortgage banker, in that order.
I ran all the numbers. It's obviously a good investment - I already like the identical investment I made at a 28% higher purchase price. And mortgage rates have dropped as well. With the required 25% down I could get a mortgage at 5.375% - my monthly payment would be less than $730 compared to the $1,155 I pay on the property down the street! And I already own one on that street so I already know the property managers (who I don't employ but could), the HOA rules, the neighborhood, etc.
But that's not the main issue. I considered seriously the fact that I would be stretching a bit to buy this since if all my 6 units were vacant at one time, I couldn't pay the bills with just my salary. But this is highly unlikely. And I have plently of liquidity (albiet non-cash) that I could tap. AND my parents and grandparents are very liquid and would never let me go under in a real emergency (more on that in my next post).
My grandfather was the most enthusiastic when I called for his reaction. He's been doing deals like this - and lending and borrowing money both formally and personally - for decades. Plus he is the reason I have the resources to even be investing at this stage. So his opinion was important to me. If he had hesitated in the slightest about my capacity to handle this financially or in any other way, I would have scrapped the whole deal.
But what he said was this: "I think you have to strike while the skillet is hot!"
So here we go, again.


11 comments:
Why don't you make an offer less than asking or do you think that would be too risky?
If these are "fairly" new places, think about doing a Cost Segregation Study, and "manage" the land vs. improvement ratio if you have a mind to do just a little extra work. The CSS put an extra $40k of depreciation in our pockets and the L/I ratio put another $28k of depreciation in our pockets for new houses in MS and AL that cost $165k (not counting bonus depreciation), and that's per house. I can send you my notes if you like. timh-a@-cruzio-dot-com (just another RE investor)
Wow! So the real news is that your old unit lost $50k value in a year. Have you adjusted your net worth accordingly?
Fortunately, you're in an area where the price/rent metric comes out OK. Just hope those rental rates don't start dropping..
I think that offering less then asking price on a short sale would put you out of the running all together. It sounds like a great opportunity especially when you know it's a deal based on comparables.
Good luck!
@ Tom - I'm not even sure if I'll get away with paying the asking $172K. The lien holder has to approve the deal (since he's asking less than he owes on the place). We'll see.
@ TimH - I'll have to look into that. I've never heard of a Cost Segregation Study.
@ tlm - I don't think my other unitl has lost that much value. This listing has been on the market for 1 day, and I've already jumped on it. For all I know others have as well and might even be willing to offer more. If you appraise it based on the income approach or on comps in the area it will come out as far more valuable - even the county appraises it for much more than I paid for mine a year ago.
"I considered seriously the fact that I would be stretching a bit to buy this since if all my 6 units were vacant at one time, I couldn't pay the bills with just my salary. But this is highly unlikely."
I don't think you should make decisions that can only hold up in the best of times. I'm not saying it's not a great opportunity, but think carefully. Your lifestyle is already unsustainable on your salary alone.
@ Anon - I would never make a financial decision that could only hold up in the best of times. But I will also not eschew an opportunity that would only fail in the worst of times.
I'm a very cautious investor when it boils down to it, and I've always had the mental comfort of knowing that I could pay off all my mortgages at any time - and/or that I could pay all the expenses from my salary if all the units sit empty. Most investors NEVER have either of these comforts, even in the best of times. I am lucky enough to have enjoyed them.
This new property is currently leased for $2,200 a month. I could cover all my fixed costs if it was rented for $1,300 a month. Sure, it could be vacant, but probably not forever. And sure, rental rates could drop, but probably not below my breakeven point.
If those unlikely possibilities occur, I have ways to deal with it - my salary (and I could always get a second job), my liquidity (and I have enough currently to pay the expenses for years), and as a last resort my family (who would lend/give me as much money as I would need in a dire emergency). And of course I can always try to sell the things - with more than 20% equity in each property that shouldn't be a problem if I had to do it.
And if my liquidity dries up and my whole family goes broke and there are no tenants to be had at an y price and there is no way to sell the properties and I can't get a job to pay my bills - then I and the economy will have much bigger problems than a couple of rentals that might go into default.
I agree that a 22% drop in value of an investment is pretty hard to stomach, and that it is probably discounted from its actual market value due to a short sale.
However, from looking at your net worth profile, since you bought the place in July you have been increasing your other real estate by about a thousand dollars a month (4% per year).
Don't you think that this probably suggests some fall in value in the price of your real estate, rather than an appreciation in price? Isn't this sort of deluding yourself a bit about your actual net worth?
At the end of the day, its up to you how you want to treat your net worth. For me, I want to use it as a tool to learn about what works and what doesn't. Tracking my actual losses (around $100k) from geared stocks during the last 18 months was actually a really important lesson about investment, risk and my own risk tolerances. If I had not tracked this fairly through the downs and ups, I wouldn't have gained this knowledge and would have missed out on the learning. I reckon that the most important things for investors under 30 like you and I is to learn what actually works, which needs real data to work!
It sounds like a great investment and if you can handle it go for it. We became inadvertent landlords when we were selling our house and it didn't sell in our timeframe. Now, we have renters that cover our mortgage, taxes and insurance so we're happy. It hasn't been too stressful so far but if I had a lot to deal with with tenants, repairs, etc. I would go crazy.
Jerry
www.leads4insurance.com
@ Chris - I used to increase the value by 4% a year, but early this year (Jan) I adjusted the figures and began increasing the values by 3.0% a year (I backdated the 3%valuations back to purchase date, so that one month - I think Feb - showed a big decline in my real estate holdings).
In general my method is to start the valuations on the purchase date at the purchase price, then increase 3% a year. However I adjust the figures whenever I get an appraisal or do significant upgrades to the properties. For instance, in Jan I refinanced my homestead and got an appraisal that said it had only increased 3% a year since I bought it - so I immediately adjusted my net worth figure to reflect the new appraised value (and lowered my valuation estimates for the future).
It really doesn't matter what the exact values are since I don't plan to sell, but I do like to keep a rough estimate of my equity stake and this is my method.
Do NOT try to tell yourself that a property is worth more than it is selling for based on tax values. The county/city MAXES out the value based on previous values in order to recoup more in revenue. You said yourself you would be contesting the tax value after the sale. It's worth what it sells for and no more. Long-term, this will obviously be a better invesment than the other identical unit for which you (unknowingly) overpaid. Keep plowing ahead. You are doing great long-term. But keep it real.
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